POLLS APART: A new poll of Ohio likely voters from the American Research Group has Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, 5% undecided. Calls were made to 600 likely voters between September 17th and 20th.

This is a very different picture from the recent Plain Dealer and University of Cincinnati polls, both of which gave Bush a significant lead.

My guess? This is just way too close to call, and it's going to stay that way right up to November 2.